(Red) Expansion-polooza!!

What a crazy off season we just went through. It actually seemed like there has been some kind of college football news since the bowl season ended. Locally two stories have dominated the land scape in the off season. The first one may be the biggest. In June of this past summer the University of Utah officially accepted an invitation to join the Pac-10 conference, deciding to leave the Mountain West Conference, a conference the U helped build. There were two people I talked to that did not believe me when I said this would happen months and months ago, one of them was my partner Blue. Everyone saw the smoke, I, of course believed, there was fire. For the U this was a no brainer move and one that had to be done. This raises the Ute athletic programs to unthought of heights. The funding alone is going to go through the roof. Last year the U brought in almost $1.5 million in TV revenue from the MWC. In what is going to be the Pac 12 the Utes could receive up to $15-20 million  annually from a reworked TV deal that could include a Pac 12 TV network. Not only that the Pac 12 is an equal revenue sharing league. So that means access to more BCS money now that the Utes are in a BCS league. Facilities are going to get nicer, coaches are going to get paid more, recruiting budgets are going to explode. Now the Utes will not going in full financial members in the 2011 season, they will start to receive full payouts in 2013. Not only that but exposure for the program is so much better now. They are now out of the TV deal with the Mtn. (except this one last year) and they will start to be on ESPN and Fox more. Not to mention the pending Pac 12 Network. Moving to the on the field stuff everything is going to improve as well. The first is recruiting. Within hours of announcing the Pac 10 move the Ute football coaching staff got calls from dozens of recruits, many of which they would have never heard from while in the MWC. Utah has missed on so many recruits, many of which went to the Pac 10, mostly because of not being in a BCS league. I mentioned the coaches would be paid more. I believe this could make our coaching staff even more stable. 'Bigger' programs have come after our coaches and thrown piles of money at them. Now with this BCS money we can keep our coaching staff easier and be on a more even playing field. And the bowl ties ins change dramatically. In the MWC the bowls were the Las Vegas Bowl (1st pick), The Poinsettia Bowl (2nd pick), the Independence Bowl in Shreveport LA (3rd pick), the Humanitarian Bowl in Boise, ID (4th pick), and the Armed Forces bowl in Fort Worth, TX as well as the New Mexico Bowl. The Bowls in the Pac 10 are: The Rose Bowl, The Alamo Bowl, The Holiday Bowl, The Sun Bowl, The Maaco Bowl, and some other weird named bowl. The bowl locations are better across the board and the bowl payouts are double to triple if not more across the board. And of course the Utes now have easier access to the BCS Championship Game. The announcement of the move has caused season ticket sale outs, the first time in history. This is easily the biggest move in Utah athletics history -- not to forget a lot of this money can trickle into the academics and improve the school as a whole. 

VS

Now over the last 3 weeks another story has broke. BYU was looking at going independent in football and move the 18 sports in the WAC. This move got leaked to the MWC offices by someone, one report said by a Conference USA official, and Craig Thompson of the MWC promptly raided the WAC of Nevada and Fresno State making the WAC a 6 team league. Quite a coincidence if you ask me. It was a very strategic move to A: stick it to BYU for thinking about moving and B: put a blow in BYUs plans altogether. Now as of now, BYU is kind of in limbo of what to do. Some reports have them stayin the MWC others have them moving still to the WAC as well as independence in football, others say the West Coast Conference is an option. Personally I think it is a bad move by BYU to go independent in football. First of all they want exposure, sure they may get some more games on ESPN, but they will be at the mercy of ESPN for days and times, they could play wednesday afternoon for all they know. Also they have talked about BYUTV as an option. Your average sports fan, or person in general, have no idea BYUTV exists. It's not exactly in the sports section of the local cable or satellite guide. I know I don't cruise around on saturday afternoons looking for BYUTV for my college football. Secondly I think scheduling would be very tough. If the WAC agrees to play them in 1/2 the games through out the season that helps, but competitively thats a step down in playing field. The MWC has some very good teams in it with TCU and now Boise coming into the league. And without Fresno and Nevada the WAC is now behind Conference USA. So if they go to true independence in football - which only 3 teams do, Navy, Army, and Notre Dame (altho ND has a loose tie w/ the Big 10 in football) - I believe scheduling will be grooling. Sure the first 4-6 games may be easy to get some games. But the last half of the season is the trick. You figure most teams have conference schedules the last half of the season so their schedules are tied up. That eliminates a lot of possible match ups at the end of the year for BYU because other teams just can't fit them in. And not to mention other sports like basketball will be put at a huge disadvantage because moving them into a league like the WAC or WCC their credibility gets hit big time. Overall I think it is just to big of risk to make this move. I would stay in the MWC and see if the Big 12 comes calling to get back to 12 teams. BYU is on that list for sure if they do come calling. At worst you are in a pretty good MWC - sure the money sucks a little bit but BYU doesn't have to worry about it all that much. I think BYU may have over reacted to Utah's move to the Pac 10 a little to much. I think they need to wait and see what happens, because expansion is not over...

(Red) Week 1 - Washington vs BYU

Alright I will keep this rather simple. Washington has possibly the best QB in the country in Jake Locker coming into Provo. He brings with him a good running back and a really good wide receiver. BYU is replacing some where along the lines of 7 or 8 defensive starters. I think Washington may be running up and down the field all day lighting up the score board. Locker is the kind of QB that BYU has a hard time with as well, he is very mobile. Think Christian Ponder from Florida St last year (and this year for that matter). But I think the biggest factor for BYU is on the offensive side of the ball. Now Washington is not known for their defensive prowess. But BYU will be starting a new QB (2 of them to be precise). A new RB (or 3). New tight ends (2 of them). And their wide receiving core is, well, McKay Jacobsen... and that's it, and he is not a #1 receiver for most other teams. I see BYU struggling this first game, now I know they have the talent there. But the growing pains could be immense. Washington is a dark horse in the Pac 10 race and they will have speed on offense and that will cause problems for BYU, as always. I don't think BYU gets blown out at home, mainly because I just don't think Washington's D is there just yet but I just don't see that BYU offense being ready for the bright lights and having turnover issues. Timing and continuity could be a big problem for BYU out of the gates.

Washington - 31
BYU - 17

(Red) Week 1- #15 Pitt v #24 Utah

Finally!!! After 9 months of waiting college football is back. After a very extremely eventful off season for the U, one of the most anticipated home openers in the history of the program is this Thursday. The Utes welcome in the Pitt Panthers. It is a rematch of the 2005 Fiesta Bowl where Alex Smith and Urban Meyer said goodbye to the U by pummeling the Panthers and launched the program into an era of greatness. Both teams have some unknowns going into the season, which is rather common for a college football team. I would just say Pitt has more unknowns at this point. Don't get me wrong Pitt's defense is going to be stout. Their defensive ends are studs, namely the end Greg Romeus. Pitt was #1 in the country last year in sacks, the unusual thing about that stat is that they are not a blitzing team. They bring the heat with their front four. However, that does play into one of the strengths of the U. The O-Line for the U will be very solid once again this year. Anchored by Zane Taylor and Caleb Schlauderhoff this may be the best O-Line in the MWC. Pitt should have a harder to bringing pressure with just four guys. And Jordan Wynn is an assassin if given time. The Panthers do have a good secondary, but if they can't bring pressure Wynn will be finding the plethora of wide outs as well as getting the ball to the best running back tandem in the MWC, Matt Asiata and Eddie Wide. Now I don't predict 35-40 points for the Ute offense, especially in the first game, but I do expect them to move the ball well, they just need to put the ball in the end zone during their red zone trips. To many field goals last season while in the red zone.
Now the biggest match up I see is their O versus the U's D. Everybody is excited to see Pitt's heisman candidate in Dion Lewis. He ran for almost 1800 yards last season as a true freshman. They also have a stud wide out in Jon Baldwin. However there is a catch. They are replacing their QB as well as the interior of the offensive line. They have good tackles but the big thing here is the U is extremely deep on the D line. The could shuffle 8-10 guys in there and bring the heat. Their strength of running the ball plays into the Utes strength of the front four. And as always expect Kalani Sitake to mix in some very exotic blitz packages to confuse the young QB. I believe you have to respect the back and the wide out for Pitt but I just don't think in the first game of the season it is fair to expect a new QB and 60% of a new o-line to hold up for four quarters. Now the key is the U has to get in the backfield early and rattle the QB, but they need to watch for the screen because Lewis can bust one easy.
I also believe there are 2 other factors that play into this game. First is Pitt has to travel 2 time zones west and lose 2 hours. Now thats not a big deal over all but I think it can be a factor, mostly because it will disrupt their comfort zone. And the second is altitude. Come the middle of the first quarter and into the second Pitt should be huffin and puffin at the 5000 foot altitude of Rice-Eccles Stadium. This may also wear their legs out come the fourth as well. And not to mention the MUSS, they should play a big factor in this game.
Overall I just don't think in game 1 the Pitt offense can gel fast enough to challenge the Ute defense, and possibly the fastest Ute defense in history - while on the road. I believe the offense may sputter at times because Pitt's D is good but I see them wearing them down as the game goes along. If the U gets off to a fast start watch out it could get ugly.

Utes - 27
Pitt - 14